SignalMacro

CBOE Nasdaq Volatility $22.56 ↑ 4.9% 10th %ile (complacency) • KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — 32,000 to 32,499.99

Kalshi: KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

What changed

Kalshi: KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? Percentile: 10th in 90d range | Regime: complacency

Why it matters

Volatility at 10th percentile signals complacency, while Kalshi odds imply a 4% Nasdaq-100 range outcome.

Sources

futures